Silver Market Morning

Julian D.W. Phillips
Tuesday, July 17th

Gold Today – Gold closed in New York at $1,589.50 yesterday. Asia took it higher to $1,594ahead of London’s opening. London’s morning Fix today was set at $1,595.00 up $11 and in the euro at €1,296.853, while the euro stood at €1: $1.2299 up a cent on the dollar. Ahead of New York’s opening gold stood at $1,594.75 in the middle and in the euro at €1,297.39.


Silver Today – Silver closed on Friday in New York at $27.31 and opened in London at $27.41. Ahead of New York’s opening at $27.51.


Gold (very short-term)


Gold should have a mixed performance today, in New York.


Silver (very short-term)


Silver should have a mixed and quiet performance today, in New York.


Price Drivers

Gold & Silver – Banking turpitude continues to wear away the reputation of the banking system and, by extension, the trust in the paper financial system. But at least the focus is not on the Eurozone debt crisis or the coming U.S. ‘debt ceiling’ crisis and ‘fiscal cliff’ dramas.


But the main influence on the gold and silver prices over the last day has been the steadying of the euro after its earlier fall. The euro recovered slightly yesterday to €1: $1.2290 up from below €1: $1.22 leaving gold rising in the euro.



Even the Rupee has remained steady over the last week in the Rs.55 area against the U.S. dollar. As gold and silver prices build a ‘floor’, so the will to invest in them builds up again. A ‘floor’ is built when prices fall too far then steady, building a base that convinces investors that the falling has halted and there is support for prices below that ‘floor’. An Indian investor’s worst nightmare is that he should pay for his gold then see the price fall afterwards. The actual price level is not of concern. If it were then Indian investors would have stopped buying when gold hit $400 an ounce. What we are now seeing is a modest increase in demand in international markets from India. We see this interest as price driven, because the traditional rural, agricultural gold investors are busy with their farming hoping for more rain so that the harvest, when it comes in is a good one. This is due to be harvested from August’s beginning onward. Urban Indian demand is unseasonal and most likely to come in at this time. But for us to see the full Indian demand react to current prices, we will have to wait until the middle or late August. This coincides with the ending of the Northern Hemisphere’s holiday season ahead of stock building ready for the festive season and festival season in India. [To follow our weekly commentary, please subscribe to our newsletters at and at]


Silver – Silver’s trading range is so tight now it is barely changing on a weekly basis.




Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters