May 13: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower

Chris Mullen
Tuesday, May 13th


















JSE Gold































The Metals:


Gold dropped down to $1289.16 by a little after 7AM EST before it spiked up to $1298.42 in the next hour and a half of trade, but it then drifted back lower into the close and ended with a loss of 0.26%. Silver slipped to $19.364 before it rebounded to $19.593 and then also fell back off, but it ended with a loss of just 0.1%.


Euro gold rose to about €944, platinum gained $15.30 to $1448, and copper fell a couple of cents to about $3.13.


Gold and silver equities waffled near unchanged and ended with modest losses.

The Economy:







Retail Sales





Retail Sales ex-auto





Export Prices





Export Prices ex-ag.





Import Prices





Import Prices ex-oil





Business Inventories






Small business confidence back at pre-recession levels Reuters

Tomorrow brings PPI for April.


The Markets:


Charts Courtesy of


Oil continued higher ahead of tomorrow’s inventory report.


The U.S. dollar index rose as the euro fell again after the Bundesbank expressed support for more stimulus from the ECB.


Treasuries saw decent gains on worse than expected retail sales data.


The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P waffled near unchanged in quiet trade.


Among the big names making news in the market today were Airbus, Pfizer, AT&T, and Coca-Cola.


The Commentary:


Data out of China today noting that industrial output rose "only" 8.7% against expectations of an 8.9% increase, brought some selling into the red metal. Traders viewed the news as confirmation, in their minds, that China is slowing down.

Copper had put in a nice move higher yesterday finally clearing stubborn chart resistance near 3.13. Today's setback is disappointing to bulls but the dip remains relatively shallow. I am keeping a close eye on the chart of this key metal to gauge how investors/traders are sizing up the overall global economy.

The silver bulls should be hoping that copper remains firm. I will never understand that crowd as they speak out of one side of their mouth trashing any positive economic news and yet, out of the other side, regale us will tales of soaring silver prices. They fail to grasp the utter illogic of their own discombobulated theories. If they want silver higher, then they need to cheer for improving economic news, especially any sort of news that would indicate the Velocity of Money might be starting to pick up. In other words, they should be cheering for growth and inflation that tends to accompany it.

Silver needs inflation and solid economic growth to move higher - Period! It will not thrive if the equity markets crater and traders begin to fear deflation and or slowing growth.

The S&P 500 made another try at the 1900 level but could not manage to clear it (yet). It did manage to make a new all-time high (basis the emini futures) but so far cannot extend and change handles. I am observing with some strong interest the fact that long term interest rates are moving lower today. That is odd to say the least.

The biggest news of the day in my view concerns the German Bundesbank. Anyone who has traded currencies for any length of time, but particularly the old-timers who used to trade the Deutschmark, should be more than familiar with the conservative views of this Central Bank. It has a long history of dreading inflation and anything that might contribute to it (call it a lesson going back to the Weimer Republic days). There seems to be a slight shifting of the views of the Bank; at least in the sense that it is no longer as vigorously opposed to some of the "unconventional" approaches to monetary policy. We are of course talking mainly about Quantitative Easing or Bond buying programs. It appears that deflationary concerns have even this Central Bank a bit uneasy.

Dow Jones, referencing a report in the Wall Street Journal noted that the Bundesbank is "open to significant monetary stimulus at the ECB's next interest rate meeting if conditions warrant it".

That sent the Euro cascading lower as traders tied the news article to comments from ECB President Draghi made last week with the idea that Draghi would not have made the comments without at least ascertaining the mind of the Bundesbank on the matter.

The take away from this is that forex traders are baking into the cake some sort of stimulus measure coming out of next month's ECB meeting. If they do not deliver however, and the case is far from certain, watch for the Euro to pop higher. Between now and then, European economic data is going to be closely monitored for clues as to whether or not the ECB will indeed take some sort of action.


With the Euro moving sharply lower, the US Dollar is higher and is back above the 80 level basis the USDX. That seems to be pressuring gold somewhat although it continues to garner buying support from Ukrainian related issues. The yellow metal remains rangebound. Very noteworthy is the fact that once again, GLD, reported yet another drop in holdings. This time it was 2.4 tons. Rallies in gold are being used by investors to exit their GLD holdings with it looking more and more like they are willing to put the money to work in the equity markets where the big gains are to be made. Western-based investors are losing interest in gold unless it is to sell it on rallies.

Soybean traders are back to buying old crop beans again as they continue to bank on strong demand to deplete supplies before this year's crop is harvested. They have managed to push May beans (which is in its delivery period) back over the $15 mark. In the recent past that level has tended to shut off some demand or at least start getting end users to source from outside of the country. We'll see if that is the case.

Wheat continues lower as traders are focused on the recent rains in the Plains.

That is all for now... will see what happens later on and comment on it if need be and if time permits.- Dan Norcini, More at


GATA Posts:



TF Metals Report: Swiss gold was used to bomb the price and now it's gone

Western gold heading East must be from central banks, Eric Sprott says


The Statistics:

Activity from: 5/12/2014

Gold Warehouse Stocks:



Silver Warehouse Stocks:




Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]


Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) AND Mexico Stock Exchange (BMV)

SPDR® Gold Shares




London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra)

Gold Bullion Securities




London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND NYSE Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse - Xetra) AND NYSE Euronext Amsterdam

ETFS Physical Gold




Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities




Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures




Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR subtracted 2.396 tonnes.


COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 164.02: No change from yesterday’s data.

Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 10,320.26: No change from yesterday’s data.


The Miners:


Yamana’s (AUY) senior management appointment, Turquoise Hill’s (TRQ) first quarter results, and Great Panther’s (GPL) new director were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.



1. Gold Resource

GORO +21.59% $4.28

2. Paramount

PZG +11.35% $1.03

3. Solitario

XPL +5.94% $1.07


1. Alexco

AXU -4.55% $1.26

2. Allied Nevada

ANV -3.31% $3.21

3. Mines Management

MGN -3.10% $1.25

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

Please see Yahoo’s Mining/Metals News Wire for all of today’s mining news.

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

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